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The Real estate Market 2012

The real estate market is a moving target at best! And, myths whirl though this industry like no other – especially when they are coming from mass media who like to report (read sometimes distort) on aggregates when what you really need is to pick apart things to see them more clearly… We here at Richard Morrison Re/Max don’t believe what we hear, but only what we study, and what we analyze.

 

This is where we analyze & discuss the happenings in our Vancouver real estate markets as well as test our analysis. Please feel free to praise, argue, or just rant on about YOUR point of view. It is all good. ūüôā

 

Vancouver West

DETACHED (single family homes) – 52 sales on 1037 listings. Projecting 81 for the month (139 last July) for a 12.8 month supply. Massive Buyers’ market

 

ATTACHED (town homes) – 32 sales on 345 listings. Projecting 50 for the month (62 last July) 6.9 month supply for a Balanced-to-Buyers’ Market

 

APARTMENTS (condos)- 191 sales on 2301 listings. Projecting 295 for the month (341 last July) for a 7.8 month supply. Buyers’ Market

 

Vancouver real estate market pic 1

Total inventory for all property types in Vancouver West has edged up extensively.

 

real estate market in vancouver

 

The median sale price in Vancouver West has decreased by 14% since last June 2011 to a median price of $1,879,000.
Keep in mind however, that prices since the peak (in January 2012) have fallen from a high of $2,290,000 to $1,879,000 or an 18% drop.
So, I headed on to do more research and dissect the market for one client of mine who was thinking about selling his Attached townhome in the Kitsilano area. He owns a 2 bedroom townhouse ranging in the $460,000 to $550,000.

 

 

This I thought which might give me a clue to see if the areas in high demand were also being hit just as hard. (NOTE: This represents a real client and I actually had to do a study for him before he sold. )

 

My client was taken by surprise when he saw that the Townhouse market of the Kitsilano area has been hardly hit!

 

What I found was, despite intensive market pressure, something is keeping prices in the townhome market in the Kitsilano market resilient to the market pressures so far.

 

In fact, prices in the townhouse market in kits have only gone down by 3% since June 2011…

 

 

The key take away here is that this is happening in markets everywhere, from Vancouver East, to Vancouver West and Fraser Valley.

 

Please note that the DETACHED properties (Single Family Homes) in Kitsilano is also doing well (price wise) and median prices remain at $1,600,000+/- with no significant drops. The same is NOT true for other areas of Vancouver West, where we can see more than a 25%+ drop!! SEE CHART BELOW FOR CAMBIE AREA.

 

 


The chart above tells me that the Cambie area (Detached single family) was hit by 23.1% since June 2011. Again, the key point here is that there are different dynamics happening ALL OVER THE LOWER MAINLAND.

 

You need to be informed of what your area is doing if you are thinking of buying or selling…

 

Now, let’s move onto the Vancouver East Area:

 

Vancouver East

 

Detached – 71 sales to date on 708 listings. Projecting 100 sales for the month (144 last year) 7- month supply. Balanced-going-to-Buyers’ Market

 

Attached (Town Homes) – 18 sales for July (40 last year). Projecting to end up at 28 on 156 listings. A Balanced Market.

 

Apartment (Condos) – 71 July sales on 563 listings. Projecting 110 (90 last year). If we stay on track we’ll outsell last year in this category. Based on these numbers we have a Balanced Market – see here a definitive guide to selling your home.¬†
I gathered the figures above and confirmed them with our graphs…

 

Surprising numbers above, showing a balanced market transitioning to a buyer’s market in Vancouver East…

 

This graph below confirms what analysis we have been watching. The East Side of Vancouver has been more resilient to price drops. Perhaps because it did not rise as much as the West side….?

 

 

 

Despite rising inventory levels, Vancouver East has held its own.

But this may change as we transition into a Buyer’s market.

 

 

 

On another note don’t forget… Yes, we’re in a much slower market, with the lagging economic world at the moment. This is probably also the case for the near future. We had great times in the past 10+ years and some things must and do come to an end., but it does not mean a crash!! The best time to start buying investment properties in BC is today!

 

The General population must go on… Families downsize, upsize, people relocate, they move away for other reasons…. This market has come and gone… and life goes on…

 

One thing is for sure, watching the graphs above you can clearly see that market cycles are a FACT OF LIFE!

 

The best things to do in such crisis if you are thinking about buying is simply… TO BUY!

 

If you are a seller (or a buyer), comment below and we will send you detailed analysis on the market…

 

By the way, I thought I would just include a Chart I included in 2008 when the market “crashed.” I told my buyers the same thing… and that was to buy.

Be Approximately Right than Precisely Wrong.

The year of 2012 has seen the rise of home buyers in the east side of Vancouver. Many home buyers are looking for affordable homes that are currently only found in the East Side. However, the market is slowing down as of recent and prices have softened a little.

 

Many buyers have moved from buying houses on the west side because of the high cost. The dreams of home purchasers, however, have not been shattered altogether because they will get their starter homes easily in Vancouver east.

However, it is advisable that homeowners get a consultation with realtors so that they get advised on the best locations to buy their houses in

Vancouver East

as not all of the areas are the same.

 

This is because the cost of these houses also depends on the neighbourhoods. Some neighbourhoods have their houses more expensive. It has been stated that the market has been flooded in the real estate industry of Vancouver East Side. However, we still believe it remains balanced. The demand for homes has been fulfilled by the great availability of houses for single families. These homes include duplexes, townhouses and condos.

 

In the streets of Vancouver, there are advertisements of many home sellers who are trying to attract buyers. Buyers must ensure to select carefully as we are now in a Buyer’s market and they carry much of the advantage.

 

The Friendly Scoop

Most families would like to live in a neighbourhood that offers a friendly environment and facilities that will enable them to relax. For instance, parks are good for picnics and quality family time. The sports fields are also important for entertainment and body fitness. So do chose an area where there are many parks and facilities nearby.

 

Buyers Market Ahead

Vancouver East Side real estate market may continue to heat up in 2012, but all stats in the market currently point to a Buyer’s market and prices to be declining. Either way, choose a good professional and ensure that you do your own research!

The real estate property market in Vancouver, Canada has now gone haywire with the spiralling rise in property values, coupled with the onslaught of foreign buyers lapping up real properties in several key areas.

Property prices are now sy its highest levels, and is expected to climb up some more in the next few years. Now, is there a lot of speculation in Vancouver real estate market in 2012?

It has been said that this excessive speculation now happening in the Vancouver home market that is not doing the residents any good. This phenomenon of speculation gave rise to overshooting property values, which is now far beyond the reach of ordinary folks. Buying a house now would entail too much capital outlay and monthly instalment fees, leaving little monies to invest in other things. With high mortgage payments, the triggers for economic renewal, like the purchase of basic commodities and investments in small businesses, is kept to a minimum.

With little or no investments in the local Vancouver economy, Vancouverites is seeing the fall of many small businesses in the locality. This has resulted to unemployment with many folks joining the part-time labour market. This type of labour does not get paid like regular labour. They are paid less, and their jobs may be temporary or seasonal. With an economy that is tipping towards recession, coupled high property values, there is now seen a marked increased in foreclosures proceedings.

The real property markets now is considered robust, attributing it mainly to local investor confidence and foreign investor entry the past few years. There has been an increase in the purchases done by the Chinese investors among others, who avowed that Vancouver property values as a guide, is still undervalued as of today.

The local folks also had a hand with the steep property values now being experienced in the real estate markets. It was not uncommon 10 years ago, to see people buying their homes at bargain prices and then re-selling it a couple of years later at windfall profits. This situation plus the entry of foreign investors had presently pushed property values beyond the reach of the ordinary folks in Canada.

With proper guidelines from local governments, this situation can be mitigated to avoid any untoward movements resulting to the uncontrolled upward spiral in property values.

West Vancouver Real Estate Market

Last year, there was a prediction that the prices of properties would go down by a considerable percentage. For this reason there are a lot of people waiting for the property market to benefit from the reduced prices. However, despite the possible slow down studies on the West Vancouver real estate market in 2012 reveal that it is quite viable for potential investors because of the value of land and the size of land in this market.

No matter how you look at it, whenever a buyer asks me what will the market do in the next few years, I also mention that home values in Vancouver have risen since 1980. Yes, there were peaks and valleys, but this has made its property market very lucrative if you know how to play your cards right. However, had you simply bought and held real estate in the previous 20 years, you would have not been disappointed.

The market prospects for strong investment performance should remain strong considering the trend. Such indicators paint a good picture of the property market of the place in question.

West Vancouver condo sales in the January to August period are around 14 percent higher than in the same period last year.Housing sales of the entire country as a whole has however experienced a decline. Increased housing demands will cause upward pressure on prices making investments in real estate desirable.

West Vancouver`s real estate market will be attractive to many investors. This is because Canada`s economic growth is bound to double this year. In addition, the Canadian banking sector has created an enabling environment that ensures security for real estate investments. It is a wise choice to invest in Vancouver`s real estate for this reason.

Most Canadians have faith in the market, so now would be the most appropriate time to buy. Employment levels are expected to rise in the country too. The market will definitely benefit from this emerging economic trend.

More buyers have taken advantage of the low mortgage rates causing inventory levels to fall. Purchasers and vendors are now on the same page for the first time in years. This has caused some pressure on prices benefiting those who expect to earn capital returns on their investment properties. West Vancouver real estate happens to be very promising basing on the above factors.

The Richmond Market

In 2012 February the home sales in Richmond increased as compared to the previous month’s sale by 52%. The listed houses, condos and apartments for sale in February were 6% more than January 2012. The maximum increase in for sale listings was for condos. The increase in other types of homes was not too much and almost negligible The town homes, detached homes and condos in January 2012 were almost the same as in the previous months. With a large number of houses available to choose from the market in Richmond favours the buyers.

 

Future Ahead

How the Richmond real estate market will do in 2012 depends much on the business that will be done in the next two months. Even though the house selling is not so fast but the sellers are not under pressure to cut the prices of houses drastically. Home sellers who were happy enough to sell the houses at reduced prices made good sales. The prices were at their peak about seven months ago, but now with so many choices with the buyers, homes can be owned at 5% to 7% less than the prices seven months earlier.

 

The Resale Market

However, the resale market for richmond condos will be a lot challenging for the home sellers with already reduced prices. The new condos and Richmond houses are going to create a stiff competition to the resale condo markets. The new developments are offering many incentives and offers to the buyers which makes the resale of old condos even a tougher challenge. People will naturally prefer to buy home in new developments. Credit is also offered by Provincial authorities for the first time home buyers in Richmond. With this tax credit being introduced and already very low interest rates are surely going to benefit the home buyers. The Richmond real estate market in 2012 has something to offer both to the buyers and the sellers.

Burnaby Real Estate Market

Burnaby Real estate market took off in February, 2011 and held strong into the summer of that year. However, 2012 has seen much slower market than it was the same time last year. The following statistics on Burnaby Real Estate market demand (sales), supply (inventory), and the effect on mean prices from February 2010 through to February 2012 may help shed more light on the trends in the market.

 

Real Estate Market Supply, February, 2012

The current inventory in Burnaby real estate is the largest has been since 1996. In February 2011, the inventory increased from 1,154 the previous year (2010) to 1,176 (+1.9 percent). This upward trend continued over the last two years hitting a record high of 1,352 houses (+15 percent). February is usually the month when inventory starts to boost but typically the levels remarkably rise in April when the Spring Market fully running. Having had a high inventory level this February probably mean that the inventory level will stay high through to summer as the inventory level will not be absorbed before those sellers planning to list their property this spring enter the market.

 

Burnaby’s Real Estate Market Demand, 2012

There were thirty fewer units sold in Burnaby in February, 2012 (304 units) when compared to the same time last (334 units sold). Thirty fewer sales in just a month is a significant number. When coupled with the fact that the supply has increased appreciably during the same period, sellers should expect less competition for their property which translate into longer time in the market and possibly lower rates.
Interestingly though, the total sales from March 2011 to February 2012 (12 month sales volume) in the Burnaby home Market still recorded 205 units more than was over the same period the year before. Going back to 2010, the sales volume was significantly low (383 units) yet the prices skyrocketed.

 

Burnaby Real Estate Market Prices, 2012

It is always expected that an increase in supply accompanied by a decrease in demand results in lower prices. This has not been the case in the Burnaby Real Estate Market. The average prices have held steady and have risen over the last February.
In February 2010 the average price was $502,851, followed by $564,236 (+12.2 percent) in February 2011. In February 2012, the average home prices rose to $624,021 – a 10.6 percent increase compared to the same period the year before.

Key Points for Buyers

Despite the steadiness in prices followed by an increase in the past year, the Burnaby condo market still remain favorable for buyers Рmainly because of the lower interest rates and the opportunity to get a five-year fixed rate at or close to prime. It may be the right time to buy given the large inventory to choose from and the lower interest rates.

Key Points for Sellers in Burnaby

When you give buyers more choices to make by increasing supply, it will take the buyers longer to buy. Just stick out from the rest and make sure your prices are competitive enough.

Comment below and we will send you an in-depth detailed analysis on YOUR market for YOUR Property type…

 

Now I am going to enjoy the last bit of sunshine out there….

 

Richard Morrison
Real Estate Geek. Richard Morrison is the head & founder of The Richard Morrison Team, a medallion team that has consistently performed in the top 10% in the past 10 years. He is the go to Real Estate Analyst for many investors, home buyers & sellers. He is straight forward & only believes what he analyses and not what he hears.

 

PS:

Comment Below if you’d like me to analyze YOUR area! I will send you a detailed report with graph’s and all the Analytical stuff I love to do…

This communication is not intended to cause or induce breach of an existing agency agreement.

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26 responses to “The Real estate Market 2012”

  1. Pat says:

    Great work. Could I get same for the Guildford/Surrey area?

  2. Vaidy says:

    very interesting. what is happening in the condo market in South Burnaby/Central park/metrotown areas

  3. Natalie says:

    I appreciate your feedback, I am keeping in mind that there is no
    point trying to pinpoint a price until my mom is ready to sell, was just
    trying to figure out if it would sell as 2 lots or just one big one.
    Natalie

  4. Curtis says:

    Richard,

    Thanks, I appreciate keeping abreast of the market, as we have held off from purchasing a home until we see some stability rerun to the economies.

    Kind Regards

    Curtis

  5. Victor says:

    Hi Richard, i tink that you have very good information, as you know i am looking for an apartment but it dont’t have nothing to do whit my profession as Journalist and general editor of the most popular Spanish Weeky News Paper of British Columbia B.C, CONTACTO DIRECTO and is coming to the Market every friday, our date line is every tuesday at 5.00 pm, and also editor of the LATIN AMERICAN PHONE BOOK the edition for 20123 is coming on Dec 10, 2012 our date line is every November 15 of each year, i think you have to be in our media because you have more Opctions to offert to our comunity and it is the reason why i am introdicing to our Media because you can bring to your listing as costumer all the Latin Communty, to do that i have available 1/4 paqge in front page in the phone book to the next edition and speciaL page in the weekly issues .

    if you are interesting to promotre your good services please contact me.

    thank you very much for your time and support,

    Sincerely,

    VICTOR ALVARADO

  6. Wayne Jiang says:

    Great analysis !

  7. Marilyn says:

    Hi Richard
    I have a friend thinking of selling a detached house very large lot North Vancouver assessed at 910.
    Whats North Van like right now for sales?

  8. Seeger says:

    Thank you Richard, I will review it. Seeger

  9. Knut Zellerer says:

    Thanks for the info. I am still looking to buy a revenue condo but wait it out as I think a correction is in the cards .

    Thanks
    Knut

  10. Judi says:

    Hi,
    I see the market for detached homes have tipped dramatically in favour of buyers and I assume that also translates into mores days on the market.
    My question is:are houses on the West Side selling under the assessed value?
    Regards,
    Judi

  11. Don says:

    Good morning Richard: you are doing a great job keeping us informed.
    However we visited that lunatic bin called Vancouver a few weeks ago and decided
    We would stay here on Vancouver Island where we are safe and vehicle traffic is bearable.

    Best Regards
    Don

  12. Monir says:

    Thanks for the report. I would like to receive your analysis. Please see above.

  13. Falk says:

    Hi Richard,

    This is a really interesting study. Can you do something similar for the New Westminster condo market? Maybe with an approximate outlook over the next 24 months. Does it make sense to sell now or later in that market?

    Falk

  14. Thanks Richard!
    I really enjoy the case studies!

    You’re smart guy – passing on the knowledge helps get the rest of us out here!

    Cheers
    Randy

  15. Makram says:

    Richard;
    Thank you for your email. I have a rancher in Pitt Meadows that I purchased back in 2007, but I am considering at some point within the next couple of years buying a bigger house, likely within the Tric-Cities area. I would like to touch base with you and discuss the timing as well as opportunities for growth within that area.
    One option that I might consider is rent the rancher that I have and purchase the bigger house where I would live, as opposed to selling the rancher and using the money as downpayment for the bigger house.
    please let me know when would be a good time for us to touch base. It would be helpful if you could also please email me a couple of plots similar to what you have shown below for houses within the Tri Cities area.
    Regards, Makram

  16. diansyahputra says:

    Hi Richard, I have been following your blog for 1 year, good work.
    I have a house that I currently use for investment and planning to sell it may be in 10 years, it is located in hastings renfrew area
    What do you think, as I think, as I see alot of development in the neighborhood, that may sustain the investment in long run. thanks.

  17. Marian says:

    Burnaby – Attached!

  18. Christian says:

    Richard,
    Please give me your current opinion on detached homes in East Abbotsford. I am in the position to buy, but feel I should be holding onto cash and waiting a few months.
    Thoughts?

  19. fauze says:

    Hi Richard,
    Please let me know of North Vancouver analysis (detached).
    Thank you.

  20. Dear readers,

    Thank you all for your comments, rants and requests!
    Yesterday was my birthday so I’m taking the weekend off.

    But I will revert back to each of you very shortly next week!

    Take care!

  21. Marian says:

    Happy Birthday Richard! my message was very short looking for the same analysis for Burnaby – Attached (townhomes). I was surprised by the data for east vancouver attached (13.2%) increase of median price compared with last year. We are trying to sell our townhome in Burnaby and our agent is telling that we have to drop the price?
    Thanks!

  22. James says:

    Richard, thanks for giving everyone your time to compile these analyses. Great to include 6 yr trend by type as well. It gives us all something to consider. West vs East side may be a result of demographic. West likely has more international investment causing more volatility due to speculation, immigration/emigration and world economic fluctuation. Whereas east may be more long time stable Vancouver residents. Anyway, I’m particularly interested in apartment trends for East false Creek developments (eg Main & Mt Pleasant) vs East N. Van (eg 2nd Narrows & Deep Cove). Both of these are major new condo Development areas in coming years. What’s your analysis? Thanks

  23. Richard Morrison says:

    Hi all!

    I will be replying to all if you individually by the end of Thursday…
    Thank you for the great participation here so far. Many insightful perspectives indeed.

    @James:
    They aren’t making any more land, but they are making more condos.  Lots more condos.
    In fact, 8,000 new condos are coming around. Last year 4,000 condos sold in Vancouver… As such the law of supply and demand apply here… There will be a huge supply of condos hitting the market.

    MPC Intelligence started tracking new condo projects in Vancouver in 2005.

    They just recorded the busiest six months on record for announced new concrete condo projects.

    As such I would expect further downward pressure in condo prices.

  24. Abbas says:

    Dear Richard,

    Please update me regards Coal Harbour Condos.

    Wait your reply.

    REGARDS
    Abbas

  25. chit says:

    What is the projected current market price for a two bed room townhouse (950 sqft) in Capitol Hill ( north Burnaby ) built in 1995 in good condition. A price per sq.ft will be appreciated

  26. elaine says:

    Hi Richard

    Would appreciate your advice and analysis of the following
    * Outlook and market forecast for single family homes in West Vancouver
    * Market forecast of recreation properties in Sunshine Coast and in Fraser Valley. Specifically I am looking at the Cottages at Cultus Lake. What is your assessment of the potential for capital appreciation for this development in the future and is this the right time to buy a recreation property there?
    Thank you

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